The U.S. CPI report is comin’ right up!
Here’s a simple trend pullback setup I’m eyeing on USD/JPY.
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at AUD/JPY’s range resistance test after China printed downbeat inflation data. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. EIA crude oil inventories rose by 5.7 million barrels instead of estimated 2.1 million barrel increase
Japanese producer prices rose by 3.6% y/y in July vs. projected 3.5% gain, slower than earlier 4.3% increase and marking its seventh consecutive monthly dip
Australia’s MI inflation expectations fell from 5.2% to 4.9% in July, suggesting weaker price pressures over the next 12 months
Price Action News
Although the Greenback edged mostly higher in the earlier trading sessions yesterday, consolidation was the name of the game for majority of the New York session since there were no major reports on deck.
Besides, dollar traders are likely waiting on the U.S. CPI report with bated breath, as this would likely set the tone for Fed tightening expectations in September and beyond.
Majors started off moving sideways in today’s Asian market hours before bearish USD vibes came out towards the end of the session, as market players may be pricing in a downbeat inflation report.
U.S. CPI and core CPI at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. initial jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
FOMC member Harker’s speech at 8:15 pm GMT
BusinessNZ manufacturing index at 10:30 pm GMT
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This dollar pair is trending higher with rising lows connected by an ascending trend line that’s been holding so far this week.
Another dip to support might follow, depending on how Uncle Sam’s inflation readings turn out. The Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the 38.2% level lines up with the trend line to add to its strength as a floor around 143.68.
A larger pullback could reach the 50% level closer to the pivot point (143.54) and a minor psychological level or the 61.8% Fib at 143.41.
If any of these hold as support, USD/JPY could bounce right back up to the swing high near the 144.00 handle and R1 (143.98). Stronger bullish momentum might even lift it to R2 (144.24), especially if Treasury yields advance and risk aversion picks up.