I’ve got my eyes locked on EUR/USD ahead of the NFP release!
Do you think we’ll see a big move from this pair today?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at AUD/USD’s trend line break and retest setup ahead of the ADP report. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
ADP non-farm employment rose 497K in June vs. estimated 226K increase, following earlier 267K gain (downgraded from initially reported 278K increase)
U.S. ISM services PMI up from 50.3 to 53.9 in June vs. consensus at 51.3, reflecting a much stronger pace of industry expansion
JOLTS job openings came in at 9.82M in May vs. expected 9.93M figure and earlier 10.32M reading (upgraded from initially reported 10.10M reading)
Japanese average cash earnings accelerated from 0.8% to 2.5% year-over-year in May vs. 1.2% forecast, adding upside pressure on overall inflation
BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida says they will continue with YCC for the time being “with an eye on monetary interventions and market functions, and on how well we can maintain monetary easing.”
German industrial production dipped 0.2% month-over-month in May vs. estimated flat reading, erasing part of April’s 0.3% uptick
Price Action News
Overlay of USD Pairs 15-min
The dollar popped higher across the board when markets got wind of stronger than expected ADP data, setting the stage for another potential upside NFP surprise. Stronger than expected ISM services PMI also lifted the U.S. currency, although the gains were quickly reversed.
From there, price action of the majors diverged, as the Greenback chalked up losses to the yen on account of stronger Japanese wage growth data.
The dollar moved sideways against European currencies while chalking up some gains, mostly against the Canadian dollar.
U.S. non-farm payrolls report at 12:30 pm GMT
Canada’s employment report at 12:30 pm GMT
Canadian Ivey PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
ECB head Lagarde’s testimony at 4:45 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
EUR/USD 15-min Forex Chart by TV
This pair had been consolidating inside a descending triangle since the beginning of July with its lower highs and support at the 1.0845 mark.
Price dipped sharply to test support upon seeing strong U.S. leading jobs indicators but soon reversed course and busted through the triangle top.
Since then, EUR/USD has pulled back to retest the former triangle top, which lines up with the pivot point (1.o870).
If this keeps holding as support, price could make its way back up to the previous highs near the 1.0900 handle or all the way up to R1 (1.0910) and R2 (1.0940).
On the other hand, a move back inside the triangle could pave the way for a test of the support at S1 (1.0850).
In any case, better keep your eyes peeled for the June NFP figure, as this report is likely to spur additional volatility for dollar pairs!
